COVER STORY

Poles apart

DIONNE BUNSHA

YOU have come too early. Everything will happen only in the last few days before the election. They will pay people to round up a crowd. Liquor will be distributed. People will discuss and decide. Come here then. Right now, no one knows who to vote for," said Jaywantiben (name changed) a hawker from Sanjay Nagar in Naroda, Ahmedabad. She patted me on the back and greeted me with the traditional Gujarati greeting, "Aao jo (come again)."

In several places, I met with the same response — less than three weeks before the election. An indication of the uncertainty and hesitation with which people view the elections. I met Jaywantiben on November 22. Then, even most politicians were uncertain. The fate of many candidates was left hanging until the night before November 25, the last date to file nominations. Even after that deadline, hectic politicking continued, to ensure that snubbed hopefuls did not divide party votes. Caught up in the flurry of bartering seats, leaders of both parties had not even released their manifestos. "Everything will settle down after the last date for withdrawing nominations — November 28. Then, candidates will concentrate more on their constituencies," said an informed source in the BJP.

During this time of flurry, two pre-poll surveys were conducted — one by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) sponsored by Frontline and NDTV and the other by Centre for Forecasting and Research (Cfore) for Outlook. They report different outcomes. While the Outlook-Cfore poll predicts the Congress(I) will edge out the Bharatiya Janata Party with 95 to 100 of the 182 assembly seats and 47 per cent of the vote, the CSDS survey predicts the BJP will gain 50.5 per cent of votes, far ahead of the Congress(I)'s 35.8 per cent. There is another player in the poll fray — the India Today-Aaj Tak poll conducted by ORG-MARG. It is totally bullish on the BJP, predicting a landslide victory of 120 to 130 seats, surpassing the dream majority of 117 that the party enjoyed in the last election. It expects the BJP's vote share will climb to 55 per cent from the current 44.8 per cent. The India Today/ORG-MARG survey also predicts that the Congress will not be able to hold on to its present 57 seats, and will slide down to 45 to 55 seats. The India Today/ORG-MARG survey was conducted much earlier — between November 6 and 10. The Outlook-Cfore survey was done between November 18 and 24. CSDS interviewed people from November 22 to 27.

The contradicting opinion poll results reflect the uncertain mood of the Gujarat voter. These surveys throw up far more questions than answers. Although the Godhra carnage and the communal violence that followed may form the backdrop for this election, will it override the myriad problems people face — unemployment, water shortage, recession? Will the fear of the `Muslim terrorist' override centuries-old caste loyalties? Will local politics be more important than what the netas say? How much will infighting within both parties weaken their mobilisation? Only after a cocktail of these various factors is shaken on December 12 will the real kick set in.

Interestingly, the CSDS poll shows that only 35.5 per cent of BJP voters and 25.9 per cent of Congress(I) voters are sure they will not change their choice. That leaves 38.6 per cent who could change their mind. They were interviewed two weeks before polling day. The Outlook survey is silent on this question. And, the India Today survey, conducted more than a month before the election day, found that 24 per cent said they would possibly change their mind. From these results, one could conclude that voters have grown even more indecisive as election day draws nearer.

The only thing the surveys are unanimous about is that Modi is the most popular chief ministerial candidate. One reason for this may be the fact that he already holds the position and is therefore top-of-mind when one brings up the topic of Chief Minister. Another possible explanation could be because the Congress(I) is not projecting any of its leaders as a chief ministerial candidate. In fact, State Congress(I) president Shankarsinh Vaghela, the most likely choice, is not even contesting these elections. His explanation is that he is already a Member of Parliament and would prefer to concentrate on campaigning all over the State.

In various ways, all surveys reflect common issues that are important to the voter — unemployment, price rise, corruption and communal riots. Surprisingly, both the CSDS and India Today/ORG-MARG polls found that the majority of people were satisfied with the State government's performance. The Outlook-Cfore survey found that people rated the government at 4.1 on a scale of 10. Even more surprisingly, after the State has witnessed the worst communal violence in decades, only 27 per cent felt that the law and order situation has worsened in the last five years, according to the CSDS survey. The India Today/ORG-MARG poll shows that 68 per cent of the total sample, and 56 per cent of Muslims interviewed felt secure living in Gujarat today.

Especially in the current political climate, such results need to be analysed deeper. Often, those being interviewed are trying to gauge the interviewer and tell him/her things he/she wants to hear. In rural areas and urban slums, where nothing is kept secret and no one is anonymous, there is a tendency to say what should be said or what is safe. It may spell trouble if one says something that may displease those powerful within the neighbourhood. Many people I spoke to refused to give me their names. Fear and trepidation still runs high, especially during election time.

With the opinion polls throwing up divergent results, we will have to wait for `the real thing'. Then, we can go back to Jaywantiben and ask her whom she voted for. But, that may not yield a straight answer either.

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