WORLD AFFAIRS

A warning in Europe

The devastating impact of the summer floods across a vast area of Europe brings the focus back on the perils of climate change.

BISWAJIT CHOUDHURY
in Rome

FROM the air, the endless stretches of land under water could seem like the beginning of Creation, or its end. A large portion of central Europe has been transformed into a gigantic lake by the rivers Vlatva, Elbe, Danube and Enns. Unseasonal torrential rains in August have caused rivers to overflow and, at the time of writing, were threatening to breach dams. Around 100 people have died and thousands have had to be evacuated. The countries most affected have been the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia and Austria.

The floods have also spread to Eastern Europe. In Romania, seven persons were killed and many homes destroyed. In Russia, 62 people were swept away by flash floods along the Black Sea coast. In Germany, the Elbe rose to levels never seen before, forcing thousands to flee their homes. The waters threatened power stations and forced the closure of roads and railways. In Dresden, the Elbe rose to a record 9 metres. As many as 30,000 people were transferred to safer areas of the city. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called it a "national catastrophe". Four million Germans have been affected and the damage is estimated to be as high as five billion euros.

ROSSI XAVIER/ GAMMA
The Vlatva in spate in Prague.

The Czech Republic suffered the worst floods in its history. Nearly two lakh people had to be evacuated and at least 15 deaths were reported. The Vlatva invaded the suburbs of the capital, Prague, and 40,000 residents had to move to temporary shelters. The regions of Upper and Lower Austria were severely hit by floods, which Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schessel described as "the worst in living memory". In neighbouring Slovakia, the Danube rose alarmingly, inundating the countryside around the capital, Bratislava. The government declared a state of emergency.

The heads of government of the four most affected countries met in Berlin to discuss the handling of the crisis and the European Union pledged five billion euros in assistance.

The devastating impact of the summer floods has put the focus back on the problem of climatic change. In taking stock, insurers have remarked that such a vast area, from the United Kingdom to the Black Sea, has been affected at the same time.

Strange weather conditions experienced this year in different parts of the world appear to confirm the grave fears about climatic changes. In southern China, rains and landslips have claimed nearly 1,000 lives this year. While there have been floods in north Vietnam, other parts of the country are experiencing the worst drought in more than two decades. Rains and landslips resulting from them have killed 400 people in Nepal and left over 30,000 homeless. In India, large-scale flooding in Assam and parts of Bihar have been accompanied by a much delayed development of the monsoon and low precipitation in other parts. These regions of the country have been experiencing extreme heat and drought so far.

Southeastern Africa is going through a severe drought, which has resulted in an acute food crisis in that region. Twenty-five States in western United States have been affected by the worst drought in over half a century. The wheat harvest in this area is expected to be the lowest in 30 years.

The drought in southern Italy, especially in Sicily, has caused calamity provisions to be invoked. According to the association of Italian farmers, the combined damage due to both the drought and the heavy rains in August is estimated at four billion euros. Commenting on the crisis, Italian Agriculture Minister Gianni Alemanno remarked: "We are faced with the impact of climatic changes. Not only has drought become an ever-present risk but we have also to take into consideration the occurrence of monsoon-type phenomena."

Scientists point to the recurrence of the weather phenomenon El Nino - the warming of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that affects wind circulation and consequently weather patterns, causing both droughts and floods. The previous appearance of El Nino in 1998 brought floods and drought to many countries of South America, Africa and East Asia. That year also happened to be the warmest one recorded in meteorological history. Meteorologists admit that the "violent atmospheric disturbances" over Europe this August cannot be linked with absolute certainty to global warming and its effects on the earth's climate. But they emphasise that the abnormal climate patterns strongly suggest profound changes. Climatologist Luca Mercalli says: "Exceptional heat in June and too much rain in July are definitely two major anomalies, but we are dealing by now with climatic changes that are occurring over an entire year and not just in a particular season. It is precisely the repetition and the frequency of these unusual phenomena that is worrying. It is a kind of climatic evolution that would seem to bear out the theories on global climatic change, which sustain that the rise in average temperatures could modify the climatic equilibrium and provoke even stranger phenomena."

The changes in weather patterns and their frequency have been associated, with increasing certainty, with the phenomenon of global warming. The rise in temperatures occurred in a concentrated way only in the last quarter of the 20th century. The warmest years since 1867 have been recorded in the 15 years following 1980. In its report on global warming, the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts an increase of between 1.4 and 5.8§C in average temperatures for the current century. Hundreds of scientific studies confirm the evidence in support of global warming and of how it is aided by environmental pollution. The impact of pollution is evident in the rising levels of carbon dioxide found in polar ice. The glaciers in Alaska are diminishing with great speed. Greenpeace studies show that the ice cover in the Arctic has been retreating in places at the rate of 35 metres a year, since the 1960s. In the South Pole, the major part of an ice platform known as Larsen-B, which was formed 12,000 years ago, collapsed recently in the space of a month owing to the rise in temperatures in the region.

Sea levels have risen by 10 to 20 cm since 1900. The force of monsoon formations over the Indian Ocean has increased in proportion with the heating of the atmosphere. According to the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) the constant decrease in rainfall levels in Africa since the late 1960s has brought vast areas close to desertification.

Research has established that the pattern of industrialisation and modern lifestyles are the fundamental sources of global warming. The burning of fossil fuels has increased dramatically in the 1990s, and carbondioxide emissions contribute in a major way to global warming. Industry, especially the energy industry, and vehicles are major sources of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. A U.N. report published on the eve of the Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development suggests that the critical areas in this respect are North America and Asia, the latter region in the throes of frenetic industrialisation since the last decade of the 20th century. The newly appointed head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change, Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, told journalists: "There are actually very marginal doubts now about the influence of human activity on climate change." He considers the rates of rise in global temperature very high and says this "could have important repercussions on many aspects of the weather in various parts of the world, provoking serious alterations in the socio-economic balance of many countries."

CHRISTIAN M. KREUZIGER/ GAMMA
An aerial view of a flooded residential area in Vienna, Austria.

The concerns about the links between patterns of industrialisation and development with global warming and its effects have been supported by current findings and will be reiterated in Johannesburg. The conference is likely to come up against American objectives of discrediting the claims of the environmentalists and reinforcing the international economic system through instruments such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). At the same time, concessions that would slow the production of U.S.-based multinationals are being sought to be avoided. The U.S. continues to oppose the ratification of treaties that call for the reduction of emissions into the atmosphere.

ANOTHER major report on environmental pollution has just been released. Research by a group of 200 scientists working under the aegis of the UNEP has revealed the nature of a toxic 'haze' that hangs over large parts of Asia, stretching from the Indian subcontinent to China and Indonesia. Described as the "brown haze over Asia", it consists of a deadly mix of aerosols, soot, particles and other pollutants. It has resulted in a tremendous rise in the incidence of respiratory diseases in the region and probably causes approximately five lakh deaths a year in India alone.

Says Dr. Klaus Toepfer, head of the UNEP: "The haze is a result of forest fires, the burning of agricultural wastes, dramatic increase in the burning of fossil fuels in vehicles, industries and power stations and emissions from millions of inefficient cookers burning wood, cowdung and other bio-fuels." The report is based on data from the Indian Ocean experiment and supported by satellite readings. The team of scientists includes Dr.A.P. Mitra of the National Physical Laboratory in Delhi. The models used suggest that the haze may reduce rain and snow over northwestern India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and neighbouring areas of central Asia by 20 to 40 per cent. The haze is also reducing the amount of solar energy that reaches the earth and this, according Dr.Mitra, has reduced India's winter rice harvest by 10 per cent.

The various reports released on the state of the planet highlight the dilemmas that would confront the deliberations in Johannesburg due to be held from August 26 to September 4. These include reconciling development with unchecked pollution, which threatens to alter the earth's climate patterns irreversibly. The experience of many developing countries reveals that development has taken place in conjunction with large-scale environmental degradation and scant attention to safeguards. The consequences of this misguided development include a massive rise in the populations of poorer countries and the transfer of polluting industries from the developed West to developing countries eager to attract foreign investment. The state of the planet today casts serious doubts over the pattern of lifestyle in the West, which is based on consumerism and that has little regard for non-renewable resources.