COVER STORY

Of relief and preparedness

Interview with Union Agriculture Minister Ajit Singh.

Union Minister for Agriculture Ajit Singh represents the Baghpat constituency in western Uttar Pradesh, where the prosperous and politically articulate peasant community is in ferment over the adversities of the current drought. In an interview to Sukumar Muralidharan on August 8, the Minister discussed current agricultural prospects, the scope of drought relief work and the state of preparedness of the government. Excerpts:

V. SUDERSHAN

A revival in monsoon precipitation seems to be under way. Do you see any signals of hope in that?

Reports we have for the last few days say that it has rained in some areas. This may help the soya crop in Madhya Pradesh. But it has mostly rained in the coastal areas. See, the problem is that this year the statistics do not tell the real story, because in June it rained all right. In fact, in many areas it was in excess of normal. And then in July it just did not rain in many areas for four to five weeks straight. So the statistics might tell you that from June 1 to now, the rainfall is in deficit by only30 per cent. But the distribution of the rain, the timing of the rain - if you look at these, then the situation is much worse.

Which are the worst affected areas in terms of your assessment of rainfall deficit and crop losses?

The worst-affected areas are those around Delhi. Western Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand, if you look at the statistics, have been the worst affected. Then there is Haryana and Delhi, which form one meteorological division, western Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, interior Karnataka, Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat, parts of Tamil Nadu. In Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, although it rained last week, the situation is still bad. With the kind of temperatures we are having, these scattered rains do not make any difference.

Even if you get some rainfall over the next week or fortnight in the area around Delhi, is there any prospect that a successful crop could be raised?

Much of the crop has been damaged. The worst affected is bajra, which is Rajasthan's main crop. This is also grown in parts of Haryana and in the Agra division of U.P. Maize is also badly damaged, as is paddy, especially in Chhattisgarh, where it is directly sown, not transplanted. Even where it is transplanted, it might help if it rains in the next four or five days. Some of the paddy could be saved, and more than that, alternative crops could be sown, like fodder and pulses.

This would mean in some senses reversing the sowing cycle, bringing the conventional rabi crops into kharif cultivation...

Yes, pulses are also grown in the kharif, but not much. But you see, if it rains now at least the drinking water problem won't be there, the groundwater level would come up and the rabi crop would not be affected. Also, power generation would not be hit. We monitor 70 reservoirs, and except for one of these they are running at about 35 to 40 per cent of last year's level as also of the average of the last 10 years.

Have any firm assessments of crop damage been made yet?

It is a little early to have this kind of assessment. Coarse cereals have been badly affected. The situation in edible oils has improved a little with the rains in Madhya Pradesh. If it rains in Saurashtra, then groundnut may also improve. In Karnataka, maize and ragi have been badly affected.

Coarse cereals is one area where we do not have much of a buffer stock...

True, but in many areas they are not used for human consumption. Like maize is used for poultry feed and millet and bajra are eaten in some areas, but I don't think that these are favoured cereals. If the administrative machinery works, then I think that this time the consumer will not be badly affected. We have millions of tonnes of food grain stored. We have enough foreign exchange and we can import what we need. And we have had a very good mustard crop and this is already in stock. But I would like to put a caveat here: that the administrative machinery should work and the relief supplies should reach target groups on time. The people who are likely to be the worst hit are the farmers and farm labourers. The only thing that can really help the farm labourers is a food-for-work programme. And here the administrative machinery has an important role to play. It has to make sure that everybody gets an opportunity. And then there is a cash component. Many State governments are not in a position to meet this share of theirs. So we are allowing many of them to divert from other Central schemes to fund food-for-work programmes.

Under the Calamity Relief Fund and the National Calamity Contingency Fund, compensation for crop loss is allowable only to small and medium farmers. Has there been any rethinking here?

We had a meeting of all the State Agriculture and Revenue Ministers last month. Everybody agreed that all farmers owning up to two hectares should be compensated. Now it is very unfair that a farmer who owns, for instance, 2.2 hectares should be denied this. And this is hardly anything really. If you look at it from his point of view, this is an input subsidy - basically money to buy seeds and fertilizers for his next crop.

You had also been talking about debt rescheduling and forgiveness...

The RBI had issued instructions for the 1998 drought and we are asking them to do the same again. Some States have reduced interest rates charged by cooperative banks, like in Andhra Pradesh. Many other States could do the same.

What are the chances of a recovery in the rabi season?

A mitigating factor about the current situation is that kharif constitutes just about 50 per cent of total agricultural production. Earlier it used to be 65 to 70 per cent. So the monsoon rains earlier had much more of an impact than now.

Have you had any reports of distress sales of assets by small and medium farmers?

I have heard of cattle being sold at low prices, because fodder prices have gone up. That is why food-for-work, fodder supply and cattle shelters are priority areas.

But if it does not rain in the next fortnight and we are not able to raise a fodder crop, where are we going to get supplies from?

Earlier if Rajasthan had this problem, we could get supplies from Punjab and Haryana. For Gujarat we could get from Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. But now that we have had some rains in parts of the country, we can hope to raise some fodder. And then in September we have plans to sow a crop that yields fodder within 30 to 40 days. We are asking the Food Corporation of India to provide some grain for feed. The problem that could arise is how to reach the material to the target groups on time. You see, we have excellent research capabilities in agriculture, biotechnology for seeds, good fertilizer, and so on. But we are not able to reach all these to the two-hectare farmer.

Has there been a general erosion of farmers' wealth over the last three or four years, which have seen chronic scarcity conditions in certain regions like Rajasthan?

Cattle have been affected very badly, with high death rates and distress sales also. And these are often the only assets that many people have, especially in Rajasthan. They try to take them for grazing in other States, but those States will not allow that this year.

What do you think would be the impact on urban areas, in terms of supply shortfalls and price pressures?

We have enough supplies and we can meet the requirements. Even at our last meeting with State Ministers, the total requirement of food grain that was put before us was only about 151 lakh tonnes. Availability is not a problem. The whole problem is reaching the farm labourers on time and giving them enough work.